Well I think if anyone out there in light heavyweight can do it - its going to be Tito Ortiz.
In their last fight Tito got gouged in the eye by Chuck and then Chuck hit him a bunch of times and the ref stopped it.
He proved that he could stand and trade punches with the Iceman. I think that if Tito can take him down he can win.
For some reason I have a very hard time visualizing Chuck being pounded into a ref stoppage... but then again I thought the same about Matt Hughes. This is a really hard fight to call... Chuck can finish it anytime with one punch but last time he seemed sluggish and overweight. If Babalu wasn't so crappy he could have been in trouble. Why the hell doesn't anyone try and take Chuck down ffs. Only time will tell if Tito can take him down.